AI Reality Check: Market for Practical, ROI-Driven AI Solutions

Origin Reddit Post

r/technology

The AI boom is more overhyped than the 1990s dot-com bubble, says top economist

Posted by u/AdSpecialist6598•07/21/2025

Top Comments

u/Krail

I just listened to a sci-fi short story about a world where universal automation lead to people selling add space on their homes, in their homes, and finally out their own mouths via a chip o

u/ageofjake11

AMDs datacenter offerings were so bad they totally left the market after Opteron and had a few years off before Ryzen actually made them competitive again. So maybe not 25 continuous years of

u/wheres_my_ballot

My theory is the stock market is all going to shift into housing, utilities, food, and companies locking people into subscriptions for everything they need. Disposable income on UBI (If that

u/Enlightenment777

F u c k A I

u/qa3rfqwef

> And that is with AI they can't really update anymore because AI content has poisoned the internet as training data (AIs fed AI content get more inaccurate and weird over time). I think

u/WalkingEars

Yeah in current form it's a glorified autocomplete with no way of "knowing" when it's spewing out fiction. I imagine in coming years we'll see some high-profile news stories of disastrous thi

u/NanditoPapa

Slok’s thesis isn’t that AI is a scam, it’s that Wall Street is pricing in perfection before the tech has delivered. Investor expectations built on future potential rather than current fund

u/slabby

Oh yeah, the guy from Tool.

u/nordic-nomad

Yeah that’s a very apt comparison.

u/fredy31

and if I remember right they already have basically every book, newspaper article, blog post almost ever. and AI needs more content to get better. At best they can optimise what is in the sy

u/Prestigious_Ebb_1767

Lmao godamn I can’t like this enough.

u/crazy_balls

That were then forgiven, and then they complain that they shouldn't be responsible for people's student loans without a hint of irony.

u/coporate

Yeah, deepseek proved that the evaluations given to companies like openai were bloated. They focused too much on scaling and not results figuring there was a direct correlation with how large

u/chortle-guffaw2

The projected benefits of AI assume that AI can be trusted to replace people. So far, there is no indication that AI can be fixed to be trusted that much. The best we can hope for, I believe,

u/l0033z

People have been calling the bubble way before COVID…

u/Noblesseux

This is also largely my opinion and the opinion of a lot of other developers too. What AI can do or could reasonably do in the near future has become totally disjointed from what non-tech pe

u/Conscious_Can3226

Dude yes. I used to work in a support org towards the start of my career, and email and chat agents are the cheapest kind of support you can provide, calls are more expensive. When the AI fuc

u/ABC4A_

AI in our current society will be a net negative I think, at least temporarily.

u/-CJF-

It will bust eventually, but the investors and companies are going to continue circle-jerking each other for as long as possible.

u/ID4_Motana

Yeah but even in that story who the hell is buying anything? You get paid for the ad placements but is that enough to buy anything except necessities? I think the stock market is no longer c

u/octnoir

> Why? If the promises can't be kept and it becomes obvious that it won't work as intended (aka more than a thinly veiled excuse to fire people during economic hardship), the bubble has to

u/ebrbrbr

I agree with the general sentiment, though lump summing your whole savings into the S&P 500 (VOO) as soon as possible is historically the most likely to succeed in both odds and gains. B

u/Zahgi

> libertarians Are just people who are so politically ignorant and stoned that they don't realize that they are Republicans. :)

u/hawkwings

The .COM boom hit its peak in 1999. That year is not on the chart. The chart has 1995 and 2000. 2000 started off hot and then crashed.

u/WTFwhatthehell

I find it crazy that they keep trying to use these things for customer support. Like LLM's are fundamentally not suited to adversarial interactions. They can be really useful for some data

u/taez555

My favorite is listening to podcasts with some author or professor about the dangers of AI and all the commercials breaks are AI for business ads. If Sarah Connor were alive or real and ha

u/Naus1987

God, I love that quote and I have no idea where it's from. I used to be in a business selling a product at a fair rate, and then I got some competition. Eventually they started taking some s

u/Smugg-Fruit

And it will always be half baked because they think they have AGI when they still only have chatbots that are wrong 50% of the time. They're not interested in applying AI in any way that's e

u/Tearakan

And that is with AI they can't really update anymore because AI content has poisoned the internet as training data (AIs fed AI content get more inaccurate and weird over time). Add on data t

u/PerfectZeong

You get 1200 dollars years ago and boomers think that everyone quit and never worked again because of the incredible windfall they received.... from trump.

u/wheres_my_ballot

My theory is the stock market is all going to shift into housing, utilities, food, and companies locking people into subscriptions for everything they need. Disposable income on UBI (If that

u/WTFwhatthehell

I find it crazy that they keep trying to use these things for customer support. Like LLM's are fundamentally not suited to adversarial interactions. They can be really useful for some data

u/fredy31

and if I remember right they already have basically every book, newspaper article, blog post almost ever. and AI needs more content to get better. At best they can optimise what is in the sy

u/Dinkerdoo

Can't wait for our cold fusion powered AGI God coming in the next five years to send everyone* to utopia.

u/Traquer

Except it's NOT, depending on the industry you're in. If you're a tile setter or carpenter, I agree no big change coming, except maybe your invoicing software will be smarter and maybe you'll

u/Dry-Interaction-1246

Crypto bro: he just doesn't understand how AI works with bitcoin.

u/Zahgi

> libertarians Are just people who are so politically ignorant and stoned that they don't realize that they are Republicans. :)

u/Dommccabe

Anyone with just half a brain can take this AI hype to its logical conclusion. Either its total hype ( it is) and the bubble will burst... Or it it's totally real ( it isnt ) and billions w

u/chortle-guffaw2

The projected benefits of AI assume that AI can be trusted to replace people. So far, there is no indication that AI can be fixed to be trusted that much. The best we can hope for, I believe,

u/the_catalyst_alpha

I don’t know about that. This affects a whole lot more people who are in established careers already. You’re going to have people losing their jobs when they’re close to retiring but not clos

u/RallyPointAlpha

You're not wrong, but you're leaving out the part where all these .com startups failed and capital dried up. That's where the layoffs and unemployment came from.

u/throwawaystedaccount

That's not a shiny hi-tech ad for a sports shoe, it's the giant boot of capitalism

u/Andrew_Waltfeld

Success basically. AMD has already have a proven track record with their CPU's for the past 7 years. The reason why Tesla's a joke is because Elon alienated his entire market base, his voter

u/Festering-Fecal

It's going to be glorious when it pops.

u/currently__working

They get paid billions of dollars to make the *truly* difficult decisions, you see. Which yacht to buy this year, for instance.

u/qa3rfqwef

> And that is with AI they can't really update anymore because AI content has poisoned the internet as training data (AIs fed AI content get more inaccurate and weird over time). I think

u/OpenJolt

No one is saying it’s not practical. It’s just that valuations are extremely rich and all of these company’s are running on huge losses right now. For example, OpenAI is losing $2 for every .

u/MoirasPurpleOrb

Nearly all investing is based on future potential

u/john_doe_jersey

Also take into account eventual pricing. None of the AI companies today are making money. They're just raking in investor cash to put out a beta product that is (currently) relatively cheap

u/octnoir

> Why? If the promises can't be kept and it becomes obvious that it won't work as intended (aka more than a thinly veiled excuse to fire people during economic hardship), the bubble has to

u/Asyncrosaurus

I say this everytime this comes up. The market is overinflated, valuations are way about P/E, there's no chance it will grow forever without a crash. See, pointing out there is a bubble is th

u/hawkwings

The .COM boom hit its peak in 1999. That year is not on the chart. The chart has 1995 and 2000. 2000 started off hot and then crashed.

u/Prestigious_Ebb_1767

Lmao godamn I can’t like this enough.

u/nordic-nomad

Yeah that’s a very apt comparison.

u/Rustic_gan123

These companies have not relied entirely on internet data for training for a long time now, they exhausted that source 2 years ago, now it is mainly reinforcement learning and custom datasets

u/harry_pee_sachs

There are two different things happening right now in this bubble: 1. AI Labs are building foundational models from scratch and pushing the frontier of machine learning research. Examples of

u/Noblesseux

This is also largely my opinion and the opinion of a lot of other developers too. What AI can do or could reasonably do in the near future has become totally disjointed from what non-tech pe

u/tossit97531

> Success basically. AMD has already have a proven track record with their CPU's for the past ~~7~~ 25 years. kids these days

u/some_clickhead

I have concluded the same thing. It can't do any reasoning whatsoever. It's really good at parsing language and it has a ridiculously large body of knowledge integrated in it, which for many

u/hmmm_

I remember during the tech bubble you had companies with no profits, barely any sales and huge valuations just because they were dot com. They collapsed easily once confidence was lost. In th

u/ShyLeoGing

Yeah, I still am unable to wrap my head around Nvidia' gains Current | 4/30/2025 | 1/31/2025 | 10/31/2024 | 7/31/2024 | 4/30/2024 ---|---|---|---|---|--- Market Cap | 4.20T | 2.66T | 2.94T

u/DonManuel

> will make it almost impossible for older people to compete with the younger generation. This effect has increased already past the last 15-20 years. If AI will eventually be more than a

u/SirStrontium

This is a classic "collective action problem". As a whole, it's in the interest of businesses for the public to have money to buy their product. But *individually* each business is incentiviz

u/snotparty

I just want it to pop and go away already, Im so sick of seeing that little AI "star" all over the goddamned place

u/Kayge

It feels like when excel started to become popular back in the day ***Accountants are done for!***. I work in finance. I can assure you there are still accountants.

u/WTFwhatthehell

I find it crazy that they keep trying to use these things for customer support. Like LLM's are fundamentally not suited to adversarial interactions. They can be really useful for some data

u/Grandpas_Spells

I recall "very smart people" in the 90s saying the Internet wouldn't be a big deal, and I can't predict the future but this seems almost exactly the same only happening faster. People are th

u/RyukXXXX

AMDs P/E is 115 itself (Not as high as 180 but still) but I don't see people saying much about that. What's considered an unreasonable P/E?

u/the_catalyst_alpha

I don’t see UBI happening until there is pretty much an all out collapse and widespread violence. You know the rich aren’t even going to try to fix anything until their hand is forced so thin

u/AwesomeFrisbee

Thats not the immediate issue, the issue is who will be training your AI and who will be there to fix it when it inevitably goes off rails? Or when the services are down? Or when AI is gettin

u/CrunchyZebra

A bunch of angry and hungry homeless people is how you finally get society desperate and angry enough to do something.

u/taez555

My favorite is listening to podcasts with some author or professor about the dangers of AI and all the commercials breaks are AI for business ads. If Sarah Connor were alive or real and ha

u/More-A-Than-I

-#2 is helping to fund #1 through enterprise API calls/subscriptions/etc. If #2 implodes, #1 doesn't have a business model to support the outrageous costs associated with the research, at lea

u/Pretend-Marsupial258

Because the largest group that stopped working were boomers who were a few years away from retirement already.

u/ID4_Motana

Yeah but even in that story who the hell is buying anything? You get paid for the ad placements but is that enough to buy anything except necessities? I think the stock market is no longer c

u/Whizbang35

There’s an old, old story that correlates to this. In the 1950s and 60s, the leader of the UAW was Walter Reuther. This was the heyday of the Detroit auto industry, and he used the unions im

u/YawnSpawner

I'm at a company that got rid of our 2 70+ execs and it's crazy how much has changed for the better in the 2 years since. They were holding everything back so badly.

u/Alias-Q

Of course it is. But the speculation is how people on wall street make fortunes. How else can you multiply your money without providing any value to society.

u/More-A-Than-I

-#2 is helping to fund #1 through enterprise API calls/subscriptions/etc. If #2 implodes, #1 doesn't have a business model to support the outrageous costs associated with the research, at lea

u/HexTalon

The problem is that what everyone is now calling "AI" is just machine learning and automation, which has been around for a while - it's not the AGI that CGPGrey was talking about at all. But

u/DocFreudstein

They didn’t anticipate the Smartphone and the Internet of Things leading to insane amounts of app development.

u/Vsx

Yeah people don't seem to understand. If you're rich and you invest five million each in five AI companies and four of them die out but one of them is worth 100x in five years you have made 4

u/Krail

I just listened to a sci-fi short story about a world where universal automation lead to people selling add space on their homes, in their homes, and finally out their own mouths via a chip o

u/ebrbrbr

I agree with the general sentiment, though lump summing your whole savings into the S&P 500 (VOO) as soon as possible is historically the most likely to succeed in both odds and gains. B

u/HexTalon

The problem is that what everyone is now calling "AI" is just machine learning and automation, which has been around for a while - it's not the AGI that CGPGrey was talking about at all. But

u/hmmm_

I remember during the tech bubble you had companies with no profits, barely any sales and huge valuations just because they were dot com. They collapsed easily once confidence was lost. In th

u/chortle-guffaw2

Or when PageMaker came out, supposedly going to put page-layout artists out of work. Man, I miss the days when hacks put out flyers and newsletters with 15 typestyles and 40 fonts on a page.

u/matjoeman

S&P 500's overall P/E is 30 right now. One way to think about it is that a P/E of 25 represents 4% profit on your investment if all the earnings were paid out as dividends. A P/E of 100 m

u/taez555

My favorite is listening to podcasts with some author or professor about the dangers of AI and all the commercials breaks are AI for business ads. If Sarah Connor were alive or real and ha

u/hawkwings

The .COM boom hit its peak in 1999. That year is not on the chart. The chart has 1995 and 2000. 2000 started off hot and then crashed.

u/PoopieFaceTomatoNose

“Whyyyy can’t we not be solvent”

u/DonManuel

Yet you always find some dreaming optimists who expect the solution to all problems around the corner. The religious miracle centered mind applied to complex technologies which are admired bu

u/SpamEatingChikn

I think it’s more a mentality of whoever gets there first can cash in on this while everyone else still has paid employees

u/nazbot

I think anyone coding right now is going to disagree with this. I can build in 1 hour something which might have taken me 8 hours before. An 8x productivity increase is astonishing. I th

u/DocFreudstein

They didn’t anticipate the Smartphone and the Internet of Things leading to insane amounts of app development.

u/beestmode361

Yeah let me tell you, if you’re someone who is buying up a ton of land and making massive investments into data centers to train increasingly more garbage large language models (aka “bullshit

u/possibilistic

At minimum, graphics designers, VFX artists, and web designers are "out of work" for some definition of that term. It might be that graphics related workloads increase and this actually ma

u/l0033z

People have been calling the bubble way before COVID…

u/hmmm_

I remember during the tech bubble you had companies with no profits, barely any sales and huge valuations just because they were dot com. They collapsed easily once confidence was lost. In th

u/NanditoPapa

Slok’s thesis isn’t that AI is a scam, it’s that Wall Street is pricing in perfection before the tech has delivered. Investor expectations built on future potential rather than current fund

u/go_outside

Those boomers don’t understand the issue because they got $800k in PPP loans for their chinchilla breeding business and paid off all of their debts with it.

u/YawnSpawner

I'm at a company that got rid of our 2 70+ execs and it's crazy how much has changed for the better in the 2 years since. They were holding everything back so badly.

u/OpenJolt

No one is saying it’s not practical. It’s just that valuations are extremely rich and all of these company’s are running on huge losses right now. For example, OpenAI is losing $2 for every .

u/AiringOGrievances

Over-promise, under-deliver: The mantra of charlatans.

u/ebrbrbr

I agree with the general sentiment, though lump summing your whole savings into the S&P 500 (VOO) as soon as possible is historically the most likely to succeed in both odds and gains. B

u/obviouslybait

Same as when visual programming became a thing in the 90's-2000's. I remember Dreamweaver for Web development, click & drag software development. A lot of software languages have come and

u/SirStrontium

This is a classic "collective action problem". As a whole, it's in the interest of businesses for the public to have money to buy their product. But *individually* each business is incentiviz

u/ShyLeoGing

Yeah, I still am unable to wrap my head around Nvidia' gains Current | 4/30/2025 | 1/31/2025 | 10/31/2024 | 7/31/2024 | 4/30/2024 ---|---|---|---|---|--- Market Cap | 4.20T | 2.66T | 2.94T

u/Rustic_gan123

These companies have not relied entirely on internet data for training for a long time now, they exhausted that source 2 years ago, now it is mainly reinforcement learning and custom datasets

u/Conscious_Can3226

My current company released an AI chat assistant for companies, and when I was uploading the sales content to our system, I thought it was pretty funny that they explicitly coach the sales ag

u/MoirasPurpleOrb

Nearly all investing is based on future potential

u/queso_dog

Surely you still are living off that first $600 check from Mitchy boy, no? Might need to dip into that second check soon :/

u/fredy31

Yeah that will be the death kneel of AI. Its currently running by burning VC money. that cannot go for ever.

u/el_f3n1x187

Intel also betrayed everything they used to do just to try to beat AMD, they've previously discarded designs when the TDP became unsustainable (Post Netburst Architecture) this time they said

u/RallyPointAlpha

You're not wrong, but you're leaving out the part where all these .com startups failed and capital dried up. That's where the layoffs and unemployment came from.

u/snotparty

I just want it to pop and go away already, Im so sick of seeing that little AI "star" all over the goddamned place

u/AwesomeFrisbee

Thats not the immediate issue, the issue is who will be training your AI and who will be there to fix it when it inevitably goes off rails? Or when the services are down? Or when AI is gettin

u/fredy31

The good old 'its just around the corner!' Like musk with the self driving car. Its been 'gonna hit next year' for 15 years now.

u/DavidWtube

Except in the 90's we actually liked websites. The public doesn't want ai integrated into everything with no options to opt out.

u/Conscious_Can3226

My current company released an AI chat assistant for companies, and when I was uploading the sales content to our system, I thought it was pretty funny that they explicitly coach the sales ag

u/john_doe_jersey

Also take into account eventual pricing. None of the AI companies today are making money. They're just raking in investor cash to put out a beta product that is (currently) relatively cheap

u/PadyEos

> Dreamweaver Oh sweet mother of god no. Don't bring that thing back into my memory.

u/seanrm92

They think they're going to be tucked away in some bunker in New Zealand having all of their needs tended to by AI while the rest of the world burns down.

u/Soft_Walrus_3605

> God, I love that quote and I have no idea where it's from. It's probably the most famous thing economist John Maynard Keynes ever said

u/snotparty

I just want it to pop and go away already, Im so sick of seeing that little AI "star" all over the goddamned place

u/nihilist_denialist

Modern AI is a black box — even the engineers building it can’t fully explain how it arrives at many of its conclusions. That means we can’t trust its output without independent verification.

u/NullPointerJunkie

I lived through the dot-COM bubble of the 90s (even worked at a few dot COMs back in the day). I remember all the hype and promise of the Internet of the time and the way we were going to liv

u/kia75

The difference between the dotcom boom and the AI boom is that in the 90s companies weren't laying people off to replace them with "internet", long before the internet was ready. When Pizza

u/chortle-guffaw2

The projected benefits of AI assume that AI can be trusted to replace people. So far, there is no indication that AI can be fixed to be trusted that much. The best we can hope for, I believe,

u/fumar

Tesla is 100% built on the hype of FSD which has been promised as months away for at least 7 years now. Yes there's a real car, but that's not why its worth more than every other automaker co

u/wheres_my_ballot

My theory is the stock market is all going to shift into housing, utilities, food, and companies locking people into subscriptions for everything they need. Disposable income on UBI (If that

u/OpenJolt

No one is saying it’s not practical. It’s just that valuations are extremely rich and all of these company’s are running on huge losses right now. For example, OpenAI is losing $2 for every .

u/ID4_Motana

You are right. Mercedes has made far more progress in FSD but no one gives a wet shit.

u/hawkwings

The .COM boom hit its peak in 1999. That year is not on the chart. The chart has 1995 and 2000. 2000 started off hot and then crashed.

u/john_doe_jersey

Also take into account eventual pricing. None of the AI companies today are making money. They're just raking in investor cash to put out a beta product that is (currently) relatively cheap

u/johanbak

tbh think you're onto something with the subscription angle. Companies already figured out recurring revenue beats one-time sales every time. UBI would just give them a predictable income str

u/obviouslybait

Same as when visual programming became a thing in the 90's-2000's. I remember Dreamweaver for Web development, click & drag software development. A lot of software languages have come and

u/OrangeTropicana

There’s an episode on Black Mirror for something like that, but in the wildest and vilest way possible

u/WeAreHereWithAll

I don’t see how that’ll eliminate the need for accountants.

u/nickiter

"McKinsey says we should cut staff by 10% and freeze wages. Let's do that. When does my bonus come in, again?"

u/lelgimps

The thing that I find a red flag is that all the excitement in advancements are about industries that want to replace workers, laborers, and creative production fields. I'm seeing very littl

u/throwawaystedaccount

That's not a shiny hi-tech ad for a sports shoe, it's the giant boot of capitalism

u/silvusx

Prob more reason to have UBI in the future. But honestly, younger people being more competitive is a good thing. There are plenty of boomers holding onto well paying jobs. Home ownership is

u/OtisDriftwood1978

It doesn’t help that so many people see current AI as the same thing as the sentient supercomputers shown in so many different films and shows for the past 70 years.

u/fredy31

and if I remember right they already have basically every book, newspaper article, blog post almost ever. and AI needs more content to get better. At best they can optimise what is in the sy

u/DynamicNostalgia

This sub has spent a decade trying to explain that that CGPGrey video was right and AI is different than all other forms of automation… Now it’s a useless tech that is just a grift by the ri

u/CrunchyZebra

That’s my favorite part of the ultra wealthy wanting to replace workers with AI. Who pays for your product once nobody is making money anymore?

u/Conlaeb

Microsoft FrontPage. Adobe GoLive. HOTDOG PROFESSIONAL.

u/Smugg-Fruit

And it will always be half baked because they think they have AGI when they still only have chatbots that are wrong 50% of the time. They're not interested in applying AI in any way that's e

u/NanditoPapa

Every time I see Tesla's P/E, it's more confirmation we are in collapse...

u/antaresiv

Is he saying that Pets.com was never going to be profitable?

u/AiringOGrievances

Over-promise, under-deliver: The mantra of charlatans.

u/foamy_da_skwirrel

I always say people say this, but did they though? I was in high school in the 90's and we were enamored with that shit even when it was all telnet muds, Angelfire pages and chat rooms where

u/obviouslybait

Same as when visual programming became a thing in the 90's-2000's. I remember Dreamweaver for Web development, click & drag software development. A lot of software languages have come and

u/texachusetts

I have come to think of AI as a middle man distribution play on knowledge work. It doesn’t have to be super intelligent in only needs legal permission to steal and process the creative and kn

u/DocFreudstein

They didn’t anticipate the Smartphone and the Internet of Things leading to insane amounts of app development.

u/Dry-Interaction-1246

Crypto bro: he just doesn't understand how AI works with bitcoin.

u/MIT_Engineer

Yeah, the comparison with the dot-com bubble is apt. The internet wasn't a scam, but that doesn't mean the prices of internet stocks was realistic.

u/crazy_balls

That were then forgiven, and then they complain that they shouldn't be responsible for people's student loans without a hint of irony.

u/seanrm92

They think they're going to be tucked away in some bunker in New Zealand having all of their needs tended to by AI while the rest of the world burns down.

u/OpenJolt

No one is saying it’s not practical. It’s just that valuations are extremely rich and all of these company’s are running on huge losses right now. For example, OpenAI is losing $2 for every .

u/Prior_Coyote_4376

Got the name? By the way, libertarians have argued for decades that cities should allow ads on the roads and bridges to fund local government. Also, drones: https://www.sfgate.com/sports/ar

u/DavidWtube

Except in the 90's we actually liked websites. The public doesn't want ai integrated into everything with no options to opt out.

u/CrunchyZebra

That’s my favorite part of the ultra wealthy wanting to replace workers with AI. Who pays for your product once nobody is making money anymore?

u/Conscious_Can3226

Dude yes. I used to work in a support org towards the start of my career, and email and chat agents are the cheapest kind of support you can provide, calls are more expensive. When the AI fuc

u/fredy31

and if I remember right they already have basically every book, newspaper article, blog post almost ever. and AI needs more content to get better. At best they can optimise what is in the sy

u/queso_dog

Surely you still are living off that first $600 check from Mitchy boy, no? Might need to dip into that second check soon :/

u/nihilist_denialist

Modern AI is a black box — even the engineers building it can’t fully explain how it arrives at many of its conclusions. That means we can’t trust its output without independent verification.

u/Chaseism

I think AI is overhyped, but it is still very real. Just because Big Data and Algorithms didn't have the epic change in our lives like they promised, they still had a fucking big impact. I

u/Conlaeb

Microsoft FrontPage. Adobe GoLive. HOTDOG PROFESSIONAL.

u/Saint_of_Grey

AMD is only in this position because their competition in two different markets sat on their balls so hard they exploded.

u/RyukXXXX

AMDs P/E is 115 itself (Not as high as 180 but still) but I don't see people saying much about that. What's considered an unreasonable P/E?

u/NanditoPapa

Every time I see Tesla's P/E, it's more confirmation we are in collapse...

u/More-A-Than-I

-#2 is helping to fund #1 through enterprise API calls/subscriptions/etc. If #2 implodes, #1 doesn't have a business model to support the outrageous costs associated with the research, at lea

u/fredy31

Yeah cant remember where i read it this weekend: The big CEOs treat AI like it already did fill EVERY PROMISE. They treat AI like we could simply let it run and it will run your business com

u/NanditoPapa

Slok’s thesis isn’t that AI is a scam, it’s that Wall Street is pricing in perfection before the tech has delivered. Investor expectations built on future potential rather than current fund

u/lelgimps

The thing that I find a red flag is that all the excitement in advancements are about industries that want to replace workers, laborers, and creative production fields. I'm seeing very littl

u/DocFreudstein

They didn’t anticipate the Smartphone and the Internet of Things leading to insane amounts of app development.

u/nickiter

"McKinsey says we should cut staff by 10% and freeze wages. Let's do that. When does my bonus come in, again?"

u/fumar

Tesla is 100% built on the hype of FSD which has been promised as months away for at least 7 years now. Yes there's a real car, but that's not why its worth more than every other automaker co

u/PadyEos

> Dreamweaver Oh sweet mother of god no. Don't bring that thing back into my memory.

u/RallyPointAlpha

You're not wrong, but you're leaving out the part where all these .com startups failed and capital dried up. That's where the layoffs and unemployment came from.

u/MarkZuckerbergsPerm

Yeah they went full steam ahead while the technology is still half baked

u/ageofjake11

AMDs datacenter offerings were so bad they totally left the market after Opteron and had a few years off before Ryzen actually made them competitive again. So maybe not 25 continuous years of

u/Asyncrosaurus

I say this everytime this comes up. The market is overinflated, valuations are way about P/E, there's no chance it will grow forever without a crash. See, pointing out there is a bubble is th

u/PerfectZeong

You get 1200 dollars years ago and boomers think that everyone quit and never worked again because of the incredible windfall they received.... from trump.

u/kia75

The difference between the dotcom boom and the AI boom is that in the 90s companies weren't laying people off to replace them with "internet", long before the internet was ready. When Pizza

u/Tearakan

And that is with AI they can't really update anymore because AI content has poisoned the internet as training data (AIs fed AI content get more inaccurate and weird over time). Add on data t

u/OrangeTropicana

There’s an episode on Black Mirror for something like that, but in the wildest and vilest way possible

u/Alklazaris

New toys usually mean lots of investors, at first. Then as the dust starts settling many jump ship after it becomes apparent who the winners are. This is absolutely normal and you can make mo

u/random20190826

If the promises are kept, billions lose their jobs. Those who lose their jobs starve to death and those who don't lose their jobs stop having children to avoid starvation when their jobs inev

u/tossit97531

> Success basically. AMD has already have a proven track record with their CPU's for the past ~~7~~ 25 years. kids these days

u/matlynar

I mean... yes, but some are more realistic than others. The more I learn about AI (I use it almost everyday, like running it locally, studying about models and whatnot), the more obvious it

u/Sandslinger_Eve

Dot.com bubble. Yeah sure there was a point where everyone bet on tech companies like they were all golden. Then it turned out they weren't. That doesn't diminish the fact that some

u/MoirasPurpleOrb

Nearly all investing is based on future potential

u/NanditoPapa

Every time I see Tesla's P/E, it's more confirmation we are in collapse...

u/not-hank-s

Yes, everyone using it knows that but somehow C-suites are all ignoring us.

u/mpbh

The bubble is made up of the most profitable companies in human history *without even including AI revenues*. Very different than Pets.com

u/Dinkerdoo

Can't wait for our cold fusion powered AGI God coming in the next five years to send everyone* to utopia.

u/Kayge

It feels like when excel started to become popular back in the day ***Accountants are done for!***. I work in finance. I can assure you there are still accountants.

u/Pretend-Marsupial258

Because the largest group that stopped working were boomers who were a few years away from retirement already.

u/el_f3n1x187

Intel also betrayed everything they used to do just to try to beat AMD, they've previously discarded designs when the TDP became unsustainable (Post Netburst Architecture) this time they said

u/ID4_Motana

Yeah but even in that story who the hell is buying anything? You get paid for the ad placements but is that enough to buy anything except necessities? I think the stock market is no longer c

u/FourArmsFiveLegs

AI is better for replacing execs and making the workers the shareholders. We don't need morons raking in billions for themselves because some fake idea that companies need a CEO and clique of

u/MIT_Engineer

Yeah, the comparison with the dot-com bubble is apt. The internet wasn't a scam, but that doesn't mean the prices of internet stocks was realistic.

u/ehubb20

I think it comes from John Maynard Keynes.

u/CrunchyZebra

Idk Google’s AI summary for search results is often incorrect or misleading. The idea behind it shows a ton of promise it’s just not as useful as advertised currently. The biggest issue right

u/queso_dog

Surely you still are living off that first $600 check from Mitchy boy, no? Might need to dip into that second check soon :/

u/-CJF-

By some definition? Maybe, but not really moreso than anyone else imo. AI can produce some nice art but it all has that AI sheen that makes it obvious it was created by AI. Then there are the

u/qa3rfqwef

> And that is with AI they can't really update anymore because AI content has poisoned the internet as training data (AIs fed AI content get more inaccurate and weird over time). I think

u/DavidWtube

Except in the 90's we actually liked websites. The public doesn't want ai integrated into everything with no options to opt out.

u/DynamicNostalgia

This sub has spent a decade trying to explain that that CGPGrey video was right and AI is different than all other forms of automation… Now it’s a useless tech that is just a grift by the ri

u/david1610

I have seen this first hand too, it also confused statistics that I was researching one time pretty hilariously. It's good for textbook answers to things, general information and extremely go

u/the-mighty-kira

The problem with category 1 companies is that even though they produce valuable research, their valuations and spend are so astronomically high that it becomes nearly impossible for them to r

u/PerfectZeong

You get 1200 dollars years ago and boomers think that everyone quit and never worked again because of the incredible windfall they received.... from trump.

u/PM_ME_UR_PET_POTATO

For AMD you should use the non GAAP value, which is saner. The large PE is a consequence of recent acquisitions and some accounting tricks that inflate it.

u/Ihaverightofway

“The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.”

u/SpamEatingChikn

I think it’s more a mentality of whoever gets there first can cash in on this while everyone else still has paid employees

u/Vsx

Yeah people don't seem to understand. If you're rich and you invest five million each in five AI companies and four of them die out but one of them is worth 100x in five years you have made 4

u/some_clickhead

I have concluded the same thing. It can't do any reasoning whatsoever. It's really good at parsing language and it has a ridiculously large body of knowledge integrated in it, which for many

u/FeelsGoodMan2

I wish they'd stop working. There's so many 70+ year olds doing not much just jamming up all the job growth in these places. They don't want to retire because they have no hobbies or anything

u/SirExpel

What does the AI say?

u/GCRust

I call 'em political house cats. Fiercely convinced of their own independence, but wholly dependent on outside support.

u/GCRust

I call 'em political house cats. Fiercely convinced of their own independence, but wholly dependent on outside support.

u/Ihaverightofway

“The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.”

u/johanbak

tbh think you're onto something with the subscription angle. Companies already figured out recurring revenue beats one-time sales every time. UBI would just give them a predictable income str

u/Ihaverightofway

“The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.”

u/ehubb20

I think it comes from John Maynard Keynes.

u/trojan_man16

Aren’t we basically there? Elon became the wealthiest man alive by creating several companies that are 90% vapor ware and 10% actual results.

u/the_catalyst_alpha

I don’t know about that. This affects a whole lot more people who are in established careers already. You’re going to have people losing their jobs when they’re close to retiring but not clos

u/creamiest_jalapeno

Literally last night I was using every AI tool available to me to complete a relatively straightforward grad school task: parse an online tutorial, then parse a grading rubric, and finally ev

u/MarkZuckerbergsPerm

Yeah they went full steam ahead while the technology is still half baked

u/Conscious_Can3226

My current company released an AI chat assistant for companies, and when I was uploading the sales content to our system, I thought it was pretty funny that they explicitly coach the sales ag

u/wheres_my_ballot

My theory is the stock market is all going to shift into housing, utilities, food, and companies locking people into subscriptions for everything they need. Disposable income on UBI (If that

u/michixlol

So sell AI stocks now?

u/TheElderScrollsLore

I don’t know if that’s the same comparison, though since there is so much Excel or any specific application can do. AI tools are like the apps with cheats unlocked. It can be a poet, a writer

u/faen_du_sa

I dont see how the AI race will lead to anything but even more concentrated wealth for a few?

u/tossit97531

> Success basically. AMD has already have a proven track record with their CPU's for the past ~~7~~ 25 years. kids these days

u/the-mighty-kira

The problem with category 1 companies is that even though they produce valuable research, their valuations and spend are so astronomically high that it becomes nearly impossible for them to r

u/trojan_man16

Aren’t we basically there? Elon became the wealthiest man alive by creating several companies that are 90% vapor ware and 10% actual results.

u/BaconManDan9

This will age like milk

u/PadyEos

> Dreamweaver Oh sweet mother of god no. Don't bring that thing back into my memory.

u/Zeraru

It inherently has to burst catastrophically. Why? If the promises can't be kept and it becomes obvious that it won't work as intended (aka more than a thinly veiled excuse to fire people du

u/WalkingEars

Yeah in current form it's a glorified autocomplete with no way of "knowing" when it's spewing out fiction. I imagine in coming years we'll see some high-profile news stories of disastrous thi

u/currently__working

They get paid billions of dollars to make the *truly* difficult decisions, you see. Which yacht to buy this year, for instance.

u/trojan_man16

Aren’t we basically there? Elon became the wealthiest man alive by creating several companies that are 90% vapor ware and 10% actual results.

u/Prior_Coyote_4376

Got the name? By the way, libertarians have argued for decades that cities should allow ads on the roads and bridges to fund local government. Also, drones: https://www.sfgate.com/sports/ar

u/AintNobody-

North Sentinel Island wins.

u/JallexMonster

I've been thinking about this but a lot of billionaires do not need an income at this point. They could live fine lives for thousands of years without bringing in any new income, so it really

u/harry_pee_sachs

There are two different things happening right now in this bubble: 1. AI Labs are building foundational models from scratch and pushing the frontier of machine learning research. Examples of

u/harry_pee_sachs

Bytedance and Google DeepMind can both afford to lose billions per year into ML research and still carry on, because both companies have very profitable products that are not going down anyti

u/Asyncrosaurus

I say this everytime this comes up. The market is overinflated, valuations are way about P/E, there's no chance it will grow forever without a crash. See, pointing out there is a bubble is th

u/MoirasPurpleOrb

The bigger problem isn’t going to be with senior folks within a company/industry, it will be that they aren’t hiring entry level roles because “AI can just do those roles instead.” This will

u/ikefalcon

There’s a difference between eliminating something and making it more efficient. There used to be people who lit oil lamps at dusk and extinguished them in the morning. We don’t use oil lamp

u/PM_ME_UR_PET_POTATO

For AMD you should use the non GAAP value, which is saner. The large PE is a consequence of recent acquisitions and some accounting tricks that inflate it.

u/fredy31

Yeah cant remember where i read it this weekend: The big CEOs treat AI like it already did fill EVERY PROMISE. They treat AI like we could simply let it run and it will run your business com

u/nagarz

We can use historical records to get a rough idea of how bad the economic downturn is when unemployment goes up. Great depression (25% in the us), post WW2 (\~20% on average globally, varie

u/queso_dog

Surely you still are living off that first $600 check from Mitchy boy, no? Might need to dip into that second check soon :/

u/harry_pee_sachs

Bytedance and Google DeepMind can both afford to lose billions per year into ML research and still carry on, because both companies have very profitable products that are not going down anyti

u/ageofjake11

AMDs datacenter offerings were so bad they totally left the market after Opteron and had a few years off before Ryzen actually made them competitive again. So maybe not 25 continuous years of

u/Archyes

they also churn through energy and water like crazy,which makes prices higher for everyone else

u/Detson101

Many techs are over-estimated in the short term and under-estimated in the long term. The Internet DID deliver on its initial promise and more, it just took at least a decade after the dot-co

u/creamiest_jalapeno

Literally last night I was using every AI tool available to me to complete a relatively straightforward grad school task: parse an online tutorial, then parse a grading rubric, and finally ev

u/PM_ME_UR_PET_POTATO

For AMD you should use the non GAAP value, which is saner. The large PE is a consequence of recent acquisitions and some accounting tricks that inflate it.

u/WalkingEars

Yeah in current form it's a glorified autocomplete with no way of "knowing" when it's spewing out fiction. I imagine in coming years we'll see some high-profile news stories of disastrous thi

u/SirStrontium

This is a classic "collective action problem". As a whole, it's in the interest of businesses for the public to have money to buy their product. But *individually* each business is incentiviz

u/seanrm92

They think they're going to be tucked away in some bunker in New Zealand having all of their needs tended to by AI while the rest of the world burns down.

u/Conlaeb

Microsoft FrontPage. Adobe GoLive. HOTDOG PROFESSIONAL.

u/TheInfiniteUniverse_

I think the real popper will be Chinese chips. Once they can compete with Nvidia, the whole thing collapses.

u/Whizbang35

There’s an old, old story that correlates to this. In the 1950s and 60s, the leader of the UAW was Walter Reuther. This was the heyday of the Detroit auto industry, and he used the unions im

u/Noblesseux

This is also largely my opinion and the opinion of a lot of other developers too. What AI can do or could reasonably do in the near future has become totally disjointed from what non-tech pe

u/Pretend-Marsupial258

Because the largest group that stopped working were boomers who were a few years away from retirement already.

u/the-mighty-kira

The problem with category 1 companies is that even though they produce valuable research, their valuations and spend are so astronomically high that it becomes nearly impossible for them to r

u/AwesomeFrisbee

Thats not the immediate issue, the issue is who will be training your AI and who will be there to fix it when it inevitably goes off rails? Or when the services are down? Or when AI is gettin

u/slabby

Oh yeah, the guy from Tool.

u/harry_pee_sachs

Bytedance and Google DeepMind can both afford to lose billions per year into ML research and still carry on, because both companies have very profitable products that are not going down anyti

u/currently__working

They get paid billions of dollars to make the *truly* difficult decisions, you see. Which yacht to buy this year, for instance.

u/FeelsGoodMan2

I wish they'd stop working. There's so many 70+ year olds doing not much just jamming up all the job growth in these places. They don't want to retire because they have no hobbies or anything

u/Zer_

It's your basic "over the hump" type scam. You overpromise, while delivering something nowhere near what you promise. You continue to gradually improve, hyping up what your technology could b

u/Zer_

It's your basic "over the hump" type scam. You overpromise, while delivering something nowhere near what you promise. You continue to gradually improve, hyping up what your technology could b

u/Ihaverightofway

“The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.”

u/creamiest_jalapeno

Literally last night I was using every AI tool available to me to complete a relatively straightforward grad school task: parse an online tutorial, then parse a grading rubric, and finally ev

u/ImYoric

That's not the issue. The issue is that companies like OpenAI are burning through billions of dollars of loss per month, with no end in sight. All companies doing AI, with the exception of M

u/the_catalyst_alpha

I don’t know about that. This affects a whole lot more people who are in established careers already. You’re going to have people losing their jobs when they’re close to retiring but not clos

u/Soft_Walrus_3605

> God, I love that quote and I have no idea where it's from. It's probably the most famous thing economist John Maynard Keynes ever said

u/slabby

Oh yeah, the guy from Tool.

u/NanditoPapa

Every time I see Tesla's P/E, it's more confirmation we are in collapse...

u/Familiar-Range9014

The younger generation can't compete, either

u/Conscious_Can3226

My current company released an AI chat assistant for companies, and when I was uploading the sales content to our system, I thought it was pretty funny that they explicitly coach the sales ag

u/buddhistbulgyo

AI is going to exponentially gain intelligence and functionality. Such a bullshit premise talking about AI as if this is as smart as it will get. Again. Exponential speed. It's going to des

u/wthja

But AI is going to reduce the need for accountants. I am a mathematician, I can handle numbers, but still navigating tax returns was a hassle for me. With AI it got much simpler.

u/mallardtheduck

Don't forget group 3; companies slapping the letters "AI" onto products/brands that mostly already existed and have very little, if anything, to do with the work that group 1 is doing. Just l

u/JazzCompose

Will the GenAI Supply Outstrip the Demand? Free markets, including technology, have a history of creating high margins for early to market products but small margins when the number of suppl

u/ehubb20

I think it comes from John Maynard Keynes.

u/octnoir

> Why? If the promises can't be kept and it becomes obvious that it won't work as intended (aka more than a thinly veiled excuse to fire people during economic hardship), the bubble has to

u/Vsx

Yeah people don't seem to understand. If you're rich and you invest five million each in five AI companies and four of them die out but one of them is worth 100x in five years you have made 4

u/Zeraru

It inherently has to burst catastrophically. Why? If the promises can't be kept and it becomes obvious that it won't work as intended (aka more than a thinly veiled excuse to fire people du

u/fredy31

Yeah cant remember where i read it this weekend: The big CEOs treat AI like it already did fill EVERY PROMISE. They treat AI like we could simply let it run and it will run your business com

u/go_outside

Those boomers don’t understand the issue because they got $800k in PPP loans for their chinchilla breeding business and paid off all of their debts with it.

u/matlynar

I mean... yes, but some are more realistic than others. The more I learn about AI (I use it almost everyday, like running it locally, studying about models and whatnot), the more obvious it

u/ID4_Motana

You are right. Mercedes has made far more progress in FSD but no one gives a wet shit.

u/SpamEatingChikn

I think it’s more a mentality of whoever gets there first can cash in on this while everyone else still has paid employees

u/Saint_of_Grey

AMD is only in this position because their competition in two different markets sat on their balls so hard they exploded.

u/Naus1987

God, I love that quote and I have no idea where it's from. I used to be in a business selling a product at a fair rate, and then I got some competition. Eventually they started taking some s

u/Sandslinger_Eve

Dot.com bubble. Yeah sure there was a point where everyone bet on tech companies like they were all golden. Then it turned out they weren't. That doesn't diminish the fact that some

u/Krail

I just listened to a sci-fi short story about a world where universal automation lead to people selling add space on their homes, in their homes, and finally out their own mouths via a chip o

u/ButtHurtStallion

Economist Paul Krugman wrote that by 2005, it would become clear that the Internet's effect on the economy is no greater than the fax machine's. One of the most famous economists thought t

u/FeelsGoodMan2

I wish they'd stop working. There's so many 70+ year olds doing not much just jamming up all the job growth in these places. They don't want to retire because they have no hobbies or anything

u/nordic-nomad

Yeah that’s a very apt comparison.

u/david1610

AI is definitely over hyped, but still incredibly useful, it is amazing as a really good Google search and coding assistant, however at replacing whole employees I don't think so. Perhaps Fro

u/Dry-Interaction-1246

Crypto bro: he just doesn't understand how AI works with bitcoin.

u/Andrew_Waltfeld

Success basically. AMD has already have a proven track record with their CPU's for the past 7 years. The reason why Tesla's a joke is because Elon alienated his entire market base, his voter

u/cyberdork

For comparison, if the market now would be as overinflated as during the dot com bubble it must be 30-40% higher than it's now. S&P 500 would be around 10k, not 6.3k. At the beginning of

u/tree-molester

Fortunately all of us AI unemployed casualties will get basic income subsidies paid in bitcoin.

u/Kayge

It feels like when excel started to become popular back in the day ***Accountants are done for!***. I work in finance. I can assure you there are still accountants.

u/kia75

The difference between the dotcom boom and the AI boom is that in the 90s companies weren't laying people off to replace them with "internet", long before the internet was ready. When Pizza

u/Tearakan

And that is with AI they can't really update anymore because AI content has poisoned the internet as training data (AIs fed AI content get more inaccurate and weird over time). Add on data t

u/matjoeman

S&P 500's overall P/E is 30 right now. One way to think about it is that a P/E of 25 represents 4% profit on your investment if all the earnings were paid out as dividends. A P/E of 100 m

u/Prestigious_Ebb_1767

Lmao godamn I can’t like this enough.

u/Sandslinger_Eve

Dot.com bubble. Yeah sure there was a point where everyone bet on tech companies like they were all golden. Then it turned out they weren't. That doesn't diminish the fact that some

u/YawnSpawner

I'm at a company that got rid of our 2 70+ execs and it's crazy how much has changed for the better in the 2 years since. They were holding everything back so badly.

u/Tearakan

And that is with AI they can't really update anymore because AI content has poisoned the internet as training data (AIs fed AI content get more inaccurate and weird over time). Add on data t

u/nihilist_denialist

Modern AI is a black box — even the engineers building it can’t fully explain how it arrives at many of its conclusions. That means we can’t trust its output without independent verification.

u/fumar

Tesla is 100% built on the hype of FSD which has been promised as months away for at least 7 years now. Yes there's a real car, but that's not why its worth more than every other automaker co

u/Dinkerdoo

Can't wait for our cold fusion powered AGI God coming in the next five years to send everyone* to utopia.

u/lelgimps

The thing that I find a red flag is that all the excitement in advancements are about industries that want to replace workers, laborers, and creative production fields. I'm seeing very littl

u/not-hank-s

Yes, everyone using it knows that but somehow C-suites are all ignoring us.

u/bold-fortune

They didn’t anticipate, anything. FTFY

u/Light_Error

The question I’ve always had about UBI is, what does UBI do for someone who made decent money before being replaced? UBI isn’t going to replace that, so is it just an attempt to allow the lab

u/abjedhowiz

Yeah they are just programs lol Human made programs like anything else We are still no where near real AI yet haha

u/CrunchyZebra

That’s my favorite part of the ultra wealthy wanting to replace workers with AI. Who pays for your product once nobody is making money anymore?

u/MarkZuckerbergsPerm

Yeah they went full steam ahead while the technology is still half baked

u/OrangeTropicana

There’s an episode on Black Mirror for something like that, but in the wildest and vilest way possible

u/Naus1987

God, I love that quote and I have no idea where it's from. I used to be in a business selling a product at a fair rate, and then I got some competition. Eventually they started taking some s

u/ID4_Motana

You are right. Mercedes has made far more progress in FSD but no one gives a wet shit.

u/mallardtheduck

Don't forget group 3; companies slapping the letters "AI" onto products/brands that mostly already existed and have very little, if anything, to do with the work that group 1 is doing. Just l

u/throwawaystedaccount

That's not a shiny hi-tech ad for a sports shoe, it's the giant boot of capitalism

u/bobrobor

It already did: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/s/24QWHhEYva

u/Prior_Coyote_4376

Got the name? By the way, libertarians have argued for decades that cities should allow ads on the roads and bridges to fund local government. Also, drones: https://www.sfgate.com/sports/ar

u/MoirasPurpleOrb

Nearly all investing is based on future potential

u/Conscious_Can3226

Dude yes. I used to work in a support org towards the start of my career, and email and chat agents are the cheapest kind of support you can provide, calls are more expensive. When the AI fuc

u/johanbak

tbh think you're onto something with the subscription angle. Companies already figured out recurring revenue beats one-time sales every time. UBI would just give them a predictable income str

u/crazy_balls

That were then forgiven, and then they complain that they shouldn't be responsible for people's student loans without a hint of irony.

u/CrunchyZebra

That’s my favorite part of the ultra wealthy wanting to replace workers with AI. Who pays for your product once nobody is making money anymore?

u/astrozombie2012

I absolutely believe this to be the case. Pretty soon we’re gonna see some hugely overvalued companies crashing and burning. AI has its uses, but it ain’t as useful as they want us to believe

u/BarnabasShrexx

The funny part is a lot of us did not ask for this. The corporations threw tons of money and now expect everybody to pay more for their stuff because of it. If we knew it was just going to be

u/itnor

But the promise isn’t really replacement. It’s AI as an assistant, a force multiplier. It can’t do anything without supervision. And no one person can oversee but a handful of processes/agent

u/fredy31

Yeah cant remember where i read it this weekend: The big CEOs treat AI like it already did fill EVERY PROMISE. They treat AI like we could simply let it run and it will run your business com

u/DynamicNostalgia

This sub has spent a decade trying to explain that that CGPGrey video was right and AI is different than all other forms of automation… Now it’s a useless tech that is just a grift by the ri

u/sobi-one

I truly hope it’s the case this time around, and what I’m seeing is an anomaly, because an AI model being made for a company I work is about to eliminate the need for one of our vendors, and

u/Soft_Walrus_3605

> God, I love that quote and I have no idea where it's from. It's probably the most famous thing economist John Maynard Keynes ever said

u/the_catalyst_alpha

I don’t know about that. This affects a whole lot more people who are in established careers already. You’re going to have people losing their jobs when they’re close to retiring but not clos

u/HexTalon

The problem is that what everyone is now calling "AI" is just machine learning and automation, which has been around for a while - it's not the AGI that CGPGrey was talking about at all. But

u/matlynar

I mean... yes, but some are more realistic than others. The more I learn about AI (I use it almost everyday, like running it locally, studying about models and whatnot), the more obvious it

u/el_f3n1x187

Intel also betrayed everything they used to do just to try to beat AMD, they've previously discarded designs when the TDP became unsustainable (Post Netburst Architecture) this time they said

u/foamy_da_skwirrel

I thought LLMs were notorious for not being able to do math

u/go_outside

Those boomers don’t understand the issue because they got $800k in PPP loans for their chinchilla breeding business and paid off all of their debts with it.

u/cyberdork

For comparison, if the market now would be as overinflated as during the dot com bubble it must be 30-40% higher than it's now. S&P 500 would be around 10k, not 6.3k. At the beginning of

u/Andrew_Waltfeld

Success basically. AMD has already have a proven track record with their CPU's for the past 7 years. The reason why Tesla's a joke is because Elon alienated his entire market base, his voter

u/TheInfiniteUniverse_

not to mention obvious scams like crypto and bitcoin that have been going on for over 16 years and getting bigger!

u/nihilist_denialist

Modern AI is a black box — even the engineers building it can’t fully explain how it arrives at many of its conclusions. That means we can’t trust its output without independent verification.

u/obviouslybait

Same as when visual programming became a thing in the 90's-2000's. I remember Dreamweaver for Web development, click & drag software development. A lot of software languages have come and

u/not-hank-s

Yes, everyone using it knows that but somehow C-suites are all ignoring us.

u/Zahgi

> libertarians Are just people who are so politically ignorant and stoned that they don't realize that they are Republicans. :)

u/NanditoPapa

Slok’s thesis isn’t that AI is a scam, it’s that Wall Street is pricing in perfection before the tech has delivered. Investor expectations built on future potential rather than current fund

u/Dry-Interaction-1246

Crypto bro: he just doesn't understand how AI works with bitcoin.

u/harry_pee_sachs

There are two different things happening right now in this bubble: 1. AI Labs are building foundational models from scratch and pushing the frontier of machine learning research. Examples of

u/RyukXXXX

AMDs P/E is 115 itself (Not as high as 180 but still) but I don't see people saying much about that. What's considered an unreasonable P/E?

u/Big_Crab_1510

It's making a hand full of tech bros rich and they are gonna dip right before it all comes crashing down. It's really sad to watch. All these white folks lieing their asses off about a.i. a

u/bold-fortune

They didn’t anticipate, anything. FTFY

u/matjoeman

S&P 500's overall P/E is 30 right now. One way to think about it is that a P/E of 25 represents 4% profit on your investment if all the earnings were paid out as dividends. A P/E of 100 m

u/not-hank-s

Yes, everyone using it knows that but somehow C-suites are all ignoring us.

u/Zeraru

It inherently has to burst catastrophically. Why? If the promises can't be kept and it becomes obvious that it won't work as intended (aka more than a thinly veiled excuse to fire people du

u/Asyncrosaurus

I say this everytime this comes up. The market is overinflated, valuations are way about P/E, there's no chance it will grow forever without a crash. See, pointing out there is a bubble is th

u/currently__working

They get paid billions of dollars to make the *truly* difficult decisions, you see. Which yacht to buy this year, for instance.

u/Saint_of_Grey

AMD is only in this position because their competition in two different markets sat on their balls so hard they exploded.

u/Krail

I just listened to a sci-fi short story about a world where universal automation lead to people selling add space on their homes, in their homes, and finally out their own mouths via a chip o

u/Smugg-Fruit

And it will always be half baked because they think they have AGI when they still only have chatbots that are wrong 50% of the time. They're not interested in applying AI in any way that's e

u/hmmm_

I remember during the tech bubble you had companies with no profits, barely any sales and huge valuations just because they were dot com. They collapsed easily once confidence was lost. In th

u/ShyLeoGing

Yeah, I still am unable to wrap my head around Nvidia' gains Current | 4/30/2025 | 1/31/2025 | 10/31/2024 | 7/31/2024 | 4/30/2024 ---|---|---|---|---|--- Market Cap | 4.20T | 2.66T | 2.94T

u/nordic-nomad

Yeah that’s a very apt comparison.

u/Suitable-Orange9318

You are mistaken. Almost all of these companies are running at massive losses, and many of the small ones are massively overvalued. Companies are getting large investments solely based on say

u/Kayge

It feels like when excel started to become popular back in the day ***Accountants are done for!***. I work in finance. I can assure you there are still accountants.

u/Whizbang35

There’s an old, old story that correlates to this. In the 1950s and 60s, the leader of the UAW was Walter Reuther. This was the heyday of the Detroit auto industry, and he used the unions im

u/Balavadan

The wealth disparity can get so bad that the very few people who do have money can just give each other money and won’t need the rest. That’s essentially what luxury goods already are. You j

u/MIT_Engineer

Yeah, the comparison with the dot-com bubble is apt. The internet wasn't a scam, but that doesn't mean the prices of internet stocks was realistic.

u/bold-fortune

They didn’t anticipate, anything. FTFY

u/5ManaAndADream

This is what happens when we reach a point where businesses can make wildly unsubstantiated promises and investors can’t hold them accountable because to do so would sink the ship they’ve tie

u/gentlegiant80

I think AI is real just like the Internet was back then. But there are a lot of AI companies that will be the pets.com of this boom. Less worried about Nvidia and Microsoft, more about the gr

u/GCRust

I call 'em political house cats. Fiercely convinced of their own independence, but wholly dependent on outside support.

u/MarkZuckerbergsPerm

Yeah they went full steam ahead while the technology is still half baked

u/HappyHarry-HardOn

DeepSeek used pre-existing trained data - training the data is where all the costs come in (you can run a trained LLM directly from your laptop) - That's how it was built so cheaply.

u/Zeraru

It inherently has to burst catastrophically. Why? If the promises can't be kept and it becomes obvious that it won't work as intended (aka more than a thinly veiled excuse to fire people du

u/chortle-guffaw2

The projected benefits of AI assume that AI can be trusted to replace people. So far, there is no indication that AI can be fixed to be trusted that much. The best we can hope for, I believe,

Origin Reddit Post

r/technology

The AI boom is more overhyped than the 1990s dot-com bubble, says top economist

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