Denver & Austin Housing Weakness: Explore Shorts or Wait for Buyer's Market.
Okay, I've taken a look at the Reddit discussion.
Analysis:
- Assets Mentioned: No specific stock codes or cryptocurrency symbols were mentioned. The discussion focuses on the general investment term "Housing Market," specifically in Denver and Austin.
- Sentiment:
- Denver: Bearish ("explosion of listings," "prices falling," "music sure stopped suddenly").
- Austin: Bearish ("steeper drops due to more building").
- General Housing Market (potential contagion): Cautiously bearish ("Maybe if one or more major metros start to see some real devaluations, it’ll spread. Maybe.").
- Discussion Volume: Low, based on a single post and a few comments, but the source linked (Realtor.com) is a significant indicator.
- Key Themes:
- Oversupply: "Explosion of listings" in Denver, "more building" in Austin. This is a key driver of potential price declines.
- Price Correction: Strong expectation of falling home prices in these specific markets.
- Market Shift: The phrase "music sure stopped suddenly" indicates a rapid change in market dynamics, likely from a seller's market to a buyer's market or at least a significant cooling.
- Geographic Specificity: The issues are currently localized to Denver and Austin, though there's speculation about potential broader impact.
Investment Opportunities & Advice:
The current information strongly aligns with and reinforces the previously outlined analysis. The observations about Denver's "explosion of listings" and Austin's "steeper drops" due to overbuilding are directly confirmed by this new input, solidifying the case for localized housing market weakness and a shift in supply-demand dynamics.
Investment Strategy (Consistent with and Reinforced by New Input):
- Tactical Shorting: For investors comfortable with short selling, the new information further supports researching specific assets tied to the Denver and Austin real estate markets that may be overvalued. This could include stocks of local homebuilders or developers heavily exposed to these areas, or highly geographically-concentrated Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). This strategy requires meticulous stock selection, understanding of local market catalysts, and precise market timing due to the inherent risks of shorting.
- Strategic Waiting for Buyers: Prospective homebuyers or direct real estate investors looking to purchase in Denver and Austin should interpret this reinforced information as a strong signal to exercise patience. Market conditions are increasingly likely to become more favorable, offering potentially lower prices and increased negotiating power. Diligently monitor local inventory levels, median sale price trends, days on market, and broader economic indicators (e.g., local employment, mortgage rates).
- Portfolio Diversification: For broader real estate investors, these developments in Denver and Austin serve as a potent reminder of the importance of diversifying across different geographical markets and potentially property types. It underscores the risk of over-concentration in previously "hot" areas that are now showing clear signs of correction. Re-evaluate portfolio allocations to ensure resilience against localized downturns.
Origin Reddit Post
r/rebubble
Denver Housing Market Is Hit With an Explosion of Listings—How Far Could Home Prices Fall?
Posted by u/JustBoatTrash•05/29/2025
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/denver-housing-market-inventory-prices-falling/
Top Comments
u/Jealous_Theme2741
It takes 3 comps to wipe millions of dollars in equity for a whole neighborhood
u/Ozark9090
The fall is going to be hard in Denver too.
u/zorg-18082
This list of inventory includes Denver - Aurora - Centennial. Aurora alone is massive. I don’t know anything about what’s going in Aurora but it’s a suburb of Denver. Denver proper is still b
u/zorg-18082
Oh I agree, really risky time to be trying to buy and sell in a short time frame. I’m just saying the really good homes in desirable locations are still going under contract at asking or over
u/zorg-18082
As the article states, it’s mostly the townhomes/condos that are languishing on the market. Single families that have funky layouts, no garage, located in a less desirable location or on a bu
u/Exile20
Dude come on. When there is a downturn those are the first houses which start to come on the market or have price cuts obviously. As time goes on quality single family houses will do the same
u/Gh0stSpyder
Lol, there have only been 14 homicides in the entire city of Denver as of May 30 (58% decrease YoY). That's 1.86 per 100k people, which is more than 3x lower than the national average of 7 pe
u/Dat-tall-blonde
I live here too and watching this unfold is orgasmic to me.
u/beastwood6
Austin.
The two areas have a lot in common. Austin has steeper drops due to more building in the area
u/Jealous_Theme2741
This is not true in Boulder - nice homes under 900k are sitting
Homes under a million did not exist in 2022
u/animatedailyespreszo
Just bought a SFH in Denver and you’re spot on. If we were willing to go for a condo/ townhouse we could have picked anything in the city, offered 50k under asking, and been the only offer. B
u/beastwood6
Austin.
The two areas have a lot in common. Austin has steeper drops due to more building in the area
u/Jealous_Theme2741
It takes 3 comps to wipe millions of dollars in equity for a whole neighborhood
u/zorg-18082
As the article states, it’s mostly the townhomes/condos that are languishing on the market. Single families that have funky layouts, no garage, located in a less desirable location or on a bu
u/sifl1202
Music sure stopped suddenly there!
u/facedownasteroidup
damnit why can’t this happen in Chicago
u/Sunny1-5
Maybe if one or more major metros start to see some real devaluations, it’ll spread. Maybe.
u/WokNWollClown
They won't fall....
They will list lower than 20% more than value and then stagnate.
u/Jealous_Theme2741
It takes 3 comps to wipe millions of dollars in equity for a whole neighborhood
u/WokNWollClown
They won't fall....
They will list lower than 20% more than value and then stagnate.
u/Sunny1-5
Maybe if one or more major metros start to see some real devaluations, it’ll spread. Maybe.
u/sifl1202
Music sure stopped suddenly there!
u/Exile20
Dude come on. When there is a downturn those are the first houses which start to come on the market or have price cuts obviously. As time goes on quality single family houses will do the same
u/WokNWollClown
They won't fall....
They will list lower than 20% more than value and then stagnate.
u/TheUserDifferent
Yep, crime rates are down *everywhere*.
u/Safe_Mousse7438
Let’s just say I’ve seen boom and bust in the market and it is cyclical. Prices will Come down and it is just a matter of how much .
u/zorg-18082
I mean prices have come down in Colorado for sure but they were overheated for a few years like a lot of places, especially around 2022. Out of curiosity I looked at what’s been on the market
u/zorg-18082
Maybe but for the good homes in good locations, always gonna be people with money that want to buy in Denver.
u/sifl1202
Music sure stopped suddenly there!
u/bc289
I think this understates the weakness. With the market being the average, by definition you're going to get some homes that sell for much faster, and some homes that sell for much slower.
Bu
u/Dat-tall-blonde
I live here too and watching this unfold is orgasmic to me.
u/zorg-18082
Maybe but for the good homes in good locations, always gonna be people with money that want to buy in Denver.
u/TruthSwans_
Do you live here? Denver crime rates are down and the city is plenty clean and safe lol.
u/Safe_Mousse7438
Yep it’s never your home until it is.
u/TheUserDifferent
Yep, crime rates are down *everywhere*.
u/The12th_secret_spice
Live in denver and from what I see, investors are leaving the market. There’s a flood of new rentals coming to market which is lowering rents across the entire city. Investors are cutting the
u/WokNWollClown
They won't fall....
They will list lower than 20% more than value and then stagnate.
u/Stabbysavi
There's a house down the street from me that's up for sale again. It was bought 2 years ago. All I can do is shake my head. There is no way in hell they're getting what they paid or more than
u/Ozark9090
The fall is going to be hard in Denver too.
u/sifl1202
Music sure stopped suddenly there!
u/The12th_secret_spice
Live in denver and from what I see, investors are leaving the market. There’s a flood of new rentals coming to market which is lowering rents across the entire city. Investors are cutting the
u/zorg-18082
Maybe but for the good homes in good locations, always gonna be people with money that want to buy in Denver.
u/Ozark9090
The fall is going to be hard in Denver too.
u/TruthSwans_
Do you live here? Denver crime rates are down and the city is plenty clean and safe lol.
u/bc289
I think this understates the weakness. With the market being the average, by definition you're going to get some homes that sell for much faster, and some homes that sell for much slower.
Bu
u/TheUserDifferent
Yep, crime rates are down *everywhere*.
u/shyvananana
They'll certainly try though.
I have no doubt of that
u/Gh0stSpyder
Lol, there have only been 14 homicides in the entire city of Denver as of May 30 (58% decrease YoY). That's 1.86 per 100k people, which is more than 3x lower than the national average of 7 pe
u/zorg-18082
This list of inventory includes Denver - Aurora - Centennial. Aurora alone is massive. I don’t know anything about what’s going in Aurora but it’s a suburb of Denver. Denver proper is still b
u/The12th_secret_spice
Live in denver and from what I see, investors are leaving the market. There’s a flood of new rentals coming to market which is lowering rents across the entire city. Investors are cutting the
u/zorg-18082
I’m telling you that right now it’s a fact that those good homes in desirable areas of Denver are still going under contract in days. Maybe they don’t appreciate and even lose value short ter
u/animatedailyespreszo
Just bought a SFH in Denver and you’re spot on. If we were willing to go for a condo/ townhouse we could have picked anything in the city, offered 50k under asking, and been the only offer. B
u/AwardImmediate720
It's because the consequences of policy hit home hard. Denver is not the safe and clean city it was a decade ago and the fall was fast.
u/beastwood6
Austin.
The two areas have a lot in common. Austin has steeper drops due to more building in the area
u/WokNWollClown
They won't fall....
They will list lower than 20% more than value and then stagnate.
u/bc289
I think this understates the weakness. With the market being the average, by definition you're going to get some homes that sell for much faster, and some homes that sell for much slower.
Bu
u/The12th_secret_spice
Live in denver and from what I see, investors are leaving the market. There’s a flood of new rentals coming to market which is lowering rents across the entire city. Investors are cutting the
u/beastwood6
Austin.
The two areas have a lot in common. Austin has steeper drops due to more building in the area
u/zorg-18082
This list of inventory includes Denver - Aurora - Centennial. Aurora alone is massive. I don’t know anything about what’s going in Aurora but it’s a suburb of Denver. Denver proper is still b
u/Safe_Mousse7438
Yep it’s never your home until it is.
u/AwardImmediate720
It's because the consequences of policy hit home hard. Denver is not the safe and clean city it was a decade ago and the fall was fast.
u/Stabbysavi
There's a house down the street from me that's up for sale again. It was bought 2 years ago. All I can do is shake my head. There is no way in hell they're getting what they paid or more than
u/TheUserDifferent
Yep, crime rates are down *everywhere*.
u/zorg-18082
As the article states, it’s mostly the townhomes/condos that are languishing on the market. Single families that have funky layouts, no garage, located in a less desirable location or on a bu
u/elonzucks
Dallas not as bad, but some suburs yes
u/TruthSwans_
Do you live here? Denver crime rates are down and the city is plenty clean and safe lol.
u/zorg-18082
I mean prices have come down in Colorado for sure but they were overheated for a few years like a lot of places, especially around 2022. Out of curiosity I looked at what’s been on the market
u/VendettaKarma
Not far enough
u/Gh0stSpyder
Lol, there have only been 14 homicides in the entire city of Denver as of May 30 (58% decrease YoY). That's 1.86 per 100k people, which is more than 3x lower than the national average of 7 pe
u/shyvananana
They'll certainly try though.
I have no doubt of that
u/Exile20
Dude come on. When there is a downturn those are the first houses which start to come on the market or have price cuts obviously. As time goes on quality single family houses will do the same
u/Ozark9090
The fall is going to be hard in Denver too.
u/Stabbysavi
There's a house down the street from me that's up for sale again. It was bought 2 years ago. All I can do is shake my head. There is no way in hell they're getting what they paid or more than
u/Sunny1-5
Maybe if one or more major metros start to see some real devaluations, it’ll spread. Maybe.
u/Exile20
Dude come on. When there is a downturn those are the first houses which start to come on the market or have price cuts obviously. As time goes on quality single family houses will do the same
u/shyvananana
They'll certainly try though.
I have no doubt of that
u/VendettaKarma
Not far enough
u/zorg-18082
Yeah, that’s fair. If you bought a year or two ago and are trying to sell now, probably taking a bit of a haircut on your sale. Regardless of the home type and neighborhood. That said, I stil
u/animatedailyespreszo
Just bought a SFH in Denver and you’re spot on. If we were willing to go for a condo/ townhouse we could have picked anything in the city, offered 50k under asking, and been the only offer. B
u/zorg-18082
Don’t have to believe me, but it is what it is
u/elonzucks
Dallas not as bad, but some suburs yes
u/Safe_Mousse7438
Yep it’s never your home until it is.
u/beastwood6
Austin.
The two areas have a lot in common. Austin has steeper drops due to more building in the area
u/AwardImmediate720
It's because the consequences of policy hit home hard. Denver is not the safe and clean city it was a decade ago and the fall was fast.
u/Ozark9090
The fall is going to be hard in Denver too.
u/shyvananana
They'll certainly try though.
I have no doubt of that
u/TruthSwans_
Do you live here? Denver crime rates are down and the city is plenty clean and safe lol.
u/elonzucks
Dallas not as bad, but some suburs yes
u/facedownasteroidup
damnit why can’t this happen in Chicago
u/zorg-18082
As the article states, it’s mostly the townhomes/condos that are languishing on the market. Single families that have funky layouts, no garage, located in a less desirable location or on a bu
u/AwardImmediate720
It's because the consequences of policy hit home hard. Denver is not the safe and clean city it was a decade ago and the fall was fast.
u/zorg-18082
Maybe but for the good homes in good locations, always gonna be people with money that want to buy in Denver.
u/zorg-18082
I’m telling you that right now it’s a fact that those good homes in desirable areas of Denver are still going under contract in days. Maybe they don’t appreciate and even lose value short ter
u/Adrift_Aland
I think the trend you described above (desireable homes maintaining value, negative features having more negative impact) is also happening in the suburbs, and Aurora has long been viewed as
u/Exile20
Dude come on. When there is a downturn those are the first houses which start to come on the market or have price cuts obviously. As time goes on quality single family houses will do the same
u/Jealous_Theme2741
This is not true in Boulder - nice homes under 900k are sitting
Homes under a million did not exist in 2022
u/zorg-18082
I’m telling you that right now it’s a fact that those good homes in desirable areas of Denver are still going under contract in days. Maybe they don’t appreciate and even lose value short ter
u/beastwood6
Austin.
The two areas have a lot in common. Austin has steeper drops due to more building in the area
u/Safe_Mousse7438
Yep it’s never your home until it is.
u/zorg-18082
As the article states, it’s mostly the townhomes/condos that are languishing on the market. Single families that have funky layouts, no garage, located in a less desirable location or on a bu
u/zorg-18082
I’m telling you that right now it’s a fact that those good homes in desirable areas of Denver are still going under contract in days. Maybe they don’t appreciate and even lose value short ter
u/zorg-18082
This list of inventory includes Denver - Aurora - Centennial. Aurora alone is massive. I don’t know anything about what’s going in Aurora but it’s a suburb of Denver. Denver proper is still b
u/zorg-18082
This list of inventory includes Denver - Aurora - Centennial. Aurora alone is massive. I don’t know anything about what’s going in Aurora but it’s a suburb of Denver. Denver proper is still b
u/bc289
Here’s more data on just [Denver](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1920125130216230962?s=46).
Every market is going to have some areas of strength. I don’t doubt that what you’re saying is t
u/Stabbysavi
There's a house down the street from me that's up for sale again. It was bought 2 years ago. All I can do is shake my head. There is no way in hell they're getting what they paid or more than
u/Safe_Mousse7438
Yep it’s never your home until it is.
u/zorg-18082
Maybe but for the good homes in good locations, always gonna be people with money that want to buy in Denver.
u/Stabbysavi
There's a house down the street from me that's up for sale again. It was bought 2 years ago. All I can do is shake my head. There is no way in hell they're getting what they paid or more than
u/sifl1202
Music sure stopped suddenly there!
u/Sunny1-5
Maybe if one or more major metros start to see some real devaluations, it’ll spread. Maybe.
u/zorg-18082
I mean prices have come down in Colorado for sure but they were overheated for a few years like a lot of places, especially around 2022. Out of curiosity I looked at what’s been on the market
u/The12th_secret_spice
Live in denver and from what I see, investors are leaving the market. There’s a flood of new rentals coming to market which is lowering rents across the entire city. Investors are cutting the
u/elonzucks
Dallas not as bad, but some suburs yes
u/elonzucks
Dallas not as bad, but some suburs yes
u/Dat-tall-blonde
I live here too and watching this unfold is orgasmic to me.
u/TheUserDifferent
Yep, crime rates are down *everywhere*.
u/Jealous_Theme2741
This is not true in Boulder - nice homes under 900k are sitting
Homes under a million did not exist in 2022
u/zorg-18082
Great observation. I think the market conditions are allowing the fewer buyers to be much more selective. Denver is and will continue to be a popular city and the result is inventory that is
u/bc289
I think this understates the weakness. With the market being the average, by definition you're going to get some homes that sell for much faster, and some homes that sell for much slower.
Bu
u/Sunny1-5
Maybe if one or more major metros start to see some real devaluations, it’ll spread. Maybe.
u/Aggressive_Chicken63
Man, why doesn’t it happen where I am? :-(
u/sifl1202
Music sure stopped suddenly there!
u/animatedailyespreszo
Just bought a SFH in Denver and you’re spot on. If we were willing to go for a condo/ townhouse we could have picked anything in the city, offered 50k under asking, and been the only offer. B
u/bc289
I think this understates the weakness. With the market being the average, by definition you're going to get some homes that sell for much faster, and some homes that sell for much slower.
Bu
u/AwardImmediate720
It's because the consequences of policy hit home hard. Denver is not the safe and clean city it was a decade ago and the fall was fast.
u/Sunny1-5
Maybe if one or more major metros start to see some real devaluations, it’ll spread. Maybe.
u/Dat-tall-blonde
I live here too and watching this unfold is orgasmic to me.
u/TruthSwans_
Do you live here? Denver crime rates are down and the city is plenty clean and safe lol.