High-Risk Housing Markets Identified: Avoid or Strategically Assess for Short Positions.
Based on the information from a Reddit post titled "5 Riskiest Housing Markets to Avoid in 2025 That May Crash," which links to an article on noradarealestate.com, and the comment identifying these markets:
The post points out specific US housing markets (Albuquerque, New Mexico; Atlanta, Georgia; Winter Haven, Florida; Tampa, Florida; Tucson, Arizona) as the riskiest and potentially facing a crash in 2025. This gives us some useful insights.
Investment Strategy:
- Risk Aversion: Steer clear of direct real estate investments in these areas, whether it's rental properties, flips, or REITs that are heavily focused on these cities.
- Advanced/Aggressive Play: For more seasoned investors who can handle higher risks, this could be a signal to look into potential short opportunities. This might mean researching local developers with high leverage, regional banks with significant mortgage exposure in these areas, or specialized REITs. This approach demands thorough due diligence and strong risk management because of its complexity and inherent risks.
- Capital Reallocation: Shift your investment capital to real estate markets with stronger fundamentals and less speculative activity.
Origin Reddit Post
r/rebubble
5 Riskiest Housing Markets to Avoid in 2025 That May Crash
Posted by u/JustBoatTrash•05/29/2025
https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/5-riskiest-housing-markets-to-avoid-in-2025-that-may-crash/
Top Comments
u/ColditeNL2
Risk = probability * impact
The probability of default is a well studied metric for which models exist.
As in any business, the market value itself is not the item that causes defaults. Rathe
u/Dry-Interaction-1246
All of them is better
u/Tall-Professional130
Considering closing costs and whatnot, being underwater a year later is not unusual....
u/ColditeNL2
Risk = probability * impact
The probability of default is a well studied metric for which models exist.
As in any business, the market value itself is not the item that causes defaults. Rathe
u/weareallonenomatter
We've been looking in nice neighborhoods and prices are dropping daily. We're waiting.
u/beastwood6
Doing the lord's work
u/Terry-Scary
1. Albuquerque, New Mexico
2. Atlanta, Georgia
3. Winter Haven, Florida
4. Tampa, Florida
5. Tucson, Arizona
u/CharacterScarcity695
tusla oklahoma . i’m underwater already from 1 year ago
u/CharacterScarcity695
tusla oklahoma . i’m underwater already from 1 year ago
u/Dry-Interaction-1246
All of them is better
u/Greedy-Mycologist810
ATL is going nowhere. Well outside the city proper is but if you’re in the city in a decent neighborhood your house is going up, even now.
u/ChadsworthRothschild
The modern “housing market” as a whole is relatively new (100-200 years?) so any impression that it is stable or constant is just good marketing.
There are plenty of ghost towns to remind us
u/Terry-Scary
1. Albuquerque, New Mexico
2. Atlanta, Georgia
3. Winter Haven, Florida
4. Tampa, Florida
5. Tucson, Arizona
u/Scared-Champion-1656
In financial speak, "risk" can be crudely translated to mean loss, ie, loss of value, either realized or unrealized. In housing, risk is a new phenomenon. The housing market is not generally
u/Scared-Champion-1656
In financial speak, "risk" can be crudely translated to mean loss, ie, loss of value, either realized or unrealized. In housing, risk is a new phenomenon. The housing market is not generally
u/Greedy-Mycologist810
ATL is going nowhere. Well outside the city proper is but if you’re in the city in a decent neighborhood your house is going up, even now.
u/weareallonenomatter
We've been looking in nice neighborhoods and prices are dropping daily. We're waiting.
u/Terry-Scary
1. Albuquerque, New Mexico
2. Atlanta, Georgia
3. Winter Haven, Florida
4. Tampa, Florida
5. Tucson, Arizona